Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 1.006335 1.180742 1.376358 1.612060 1.888469 2.202486 2.586546
2024-10-06 0.773412 1.016827 1.322272 1.733972 2.275071 2.963031 3.906025
2024-10-13 0.589893 0.840706 1.181497 1.678935 2.387946 3.364614 4.816818
2024-10-20 0.469937 0.714916 1.069914 1.622663 2.464082 3.701063 5.666160
2024-10-27 0.385349 0.620115 0.979702 1.571670 2.525419 4.008556 6.503468
2024-11-03 0.337231 0.570632 0.946285 1.596318 2.698235 4.500237 7.691257
2024-11-10 0.314957 0.558001 0.967317 1.708704 3.025428 5.280427 9.466401
2024-11-17 0.286631 0.529781 0.956749 1.763401 3.259003 5.931884 11.114652
2024-11-24 0.256526 0.493209 0.925317 1.774397 3.413111 6.460589 12.615303
2024-12-01 0.227905 0.454696 0.884141 1.759715 3.514471 6.902049 14.010822
2024-12-08 0.204288 0.422119 0.849118 1.750721 3.623437 7.369320 15.521371
2024-12-15 0.186659 0.398811 0.828642 1.767083 3.784080 7.957734 17.362596
2024-12-22 0.163743 0.361789 0.776556 1.713030 3.796091 8.255874 18.663687
2024-12-29 0.159211 0.363725 0.806398 1.839881 4.218734 9.487814 22.221606
2025-01-05 0.140323 0.330838 0.756245 1.781299 4.218259 9.792174 23.715373
2025-01-12 0.123897 0.301102 0.708813 1.721563 4.205388 10.064949 25.175606
2025-01-19 0.109975 0.275202 0.666495 1.667438 4.197244 10.346351 26.700019
2025-01-26 0.102564 0.264101 0.657617 1.693599 4.390170 11.139261 29.638887
2025-02-02 0.100956 0.267368 0.684165 1.812887 4.837127 12.627382 34.625209
2025-02-09 0.096102 0.261491 0.686951 1.870944 5.133045 13.772562 38.878575
2025-02-16 0.089442 0.249810 0.673139 1.882616 5.306022 14.619377 42.445231
2025-02-23 0.082255 0.235611 0.650654 1.867031 5.400991 15.268089 45.551550
2025-03-02 0.076022 0.223190 0.631305 1.857485 5.511911 15.977657 48.953921